Trump’s Tariffs Capture a Plethora of Historic Mistakes
Here's a presentation on tariffs I made with my colleague Michael Bordo at a Hoover Institution Economic Policy Workshop. Mike describes how Trump's tariffs policy ignores the important lessons of history that tariffs are costly mistakes. In the second half of the presentation, I describe the likely adverse impacts of tariffs on the economy, financial markets and the Fed, with a focus on the potential high costs of a loss of U.S. government credibility and reliability. I conclude with a scenario analysis of Trump's tariff policies and speculate on probable outcomes.
Levy: Fed's System of Estimating and Communicating Dots Needs Changes
At the conclusion of its FOMC meeting this Wednesday, the Fed will release its quarterly Summary of Economic Projections (SEPs). In this podcast episode of Central Bank Central, Kathleen Hays and I discussed expected changes in the Fed's projections, the history of the SEPs, and common misperceptions. Based on a recent paper co-authored with Charles Plosser, former President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, and presented to the Hoover Monetary Policy Conference ("The Fed's Strategic Approach to Monetary Policy Needs a Reboot", May 2-3, 2024) and last week's related Wall Street Journal Commentary ("What the Fed Doesn't Communicate, June 6, 2024), I provide suggestions for how the Fed should modify and improve the SEPs.
